What is this market about?

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? The market resolves on Apr 30, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.

How does intra-market arbitrage work here?

If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.

Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.

Polymarket market analysis

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

No edge

Ends Apr 30, 2026

24h Volume

$689

Liquidity

$15,407

Outcomes

Summary

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Spread analysis

No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).

Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.

Outcomes

Outcome	Best ask
Yes	1.7%
No	98.3%

Price history

Last 7 days

Open on Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

What is this market about?: Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? The market resolves on Apr 30, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
How does intra-market arbitrage work here?: If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
What are the fees?: Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.