What is this market about?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? The market resolves on May 31, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.

How does intra-market arbitrage work here?

If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.

Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.

Polymarket market analysis

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

No edge

Ends May 31, 2026

24h Volume

$130,105

Liquidity

$66,106

Outcomes

Summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Spread analysis

No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).

Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.

Outcomes

Outcome	Best ask
Yes	2.8%
No	97.3%

Price history

Last 7 days

Open on Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

What is this market about?: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? The market resolves on May 31, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
How does intra-market arbitrage work here?: If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
What are the fees?: Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.