What is this market about?

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? The market resolves on May 7, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.

How does intra-market arbitrage work here?

If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.

Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.

Polymarket market analysis

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

No edge

Ends May 7, 2026

24h Volume

$564

Liquidity

$11,893

Outcomes

Summary

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).

Spread analysis

No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).

Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.

Outcomes

Outcome	Best ask
Yes	73.0%
No	27.0%

Price history

Last 7 days

Open on Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

What is this market about?: Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? The market resolves on May 7, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
How does intra-market arbitrage work here?: If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
What are the fees?: Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.