What is this market about?

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? The market resolves on May 3, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.

How does intra-market arbitrage work here?

If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.

Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.

Polymarket market analysis

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

No edge

Ends May 3, 2026

24h Volume

$8,460

Liquidity

$4,659

Outcomes

Summary

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Spread analysis

No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).

Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.

Outcomes

Outcome	Best ask
Yes	1.6%
No	98.4%

Price history

Last 7 days

Open on Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

What is this market about?: Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? The market resolves on May 3, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
How does intra-market arbitrage work here?: If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
What are the fees?: Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.